Lake guidesIce outlook, winter 2026-27
Most Ontario Lakes Expected to Freeze Over by Late‑December
LastLake’s ice model expects northern lakes to freeze first, from the third week of November. Lake Muskoka should follow around December 30 and Lake Simcoe around January 16.
Lake Simcoe, February 2013. Photo: Ice effect, CC BY-SA 3.0.
This story updates four times a day as new temperature records and forecasts come in, so the dates will be adjusted through the winter.
The map of every lake’s likely ice-on date loads here.
Likely ice-onBy Nov 30Dec 1 to Dec 7Dec 8 to Dec 14Dec 15 to Dec 21Dec 22 to Dec 31After Dec 31
Likely frozen overLikely open water
As the weather turns colder, LastLake’s ice model is predicting when each of 264 Ontario lakes will freeze over this winter.
The predictions come from air temperature records, the current forecast and each lake’s depth. Northern lakes and shallow lakes freeze first. Large, deep lakes take the longest.
Half of the lakes should be frozen over by December 25. Most dates are later than usual, because they include an adjustment for this year’s strong El Niño, which in past winters has delayed freeze-up in central and southern Ontario.
By November 3, 45 lakes had seen a day below freezing, most of them in the north. A cold November would make the dates earlier and a mild one would make them later.
Ice safety. A freeze-up date does not mean the ice is safe. New ice is thin and its thickness varies across a lake. The Canadian Red Cross calls for at least 15 centimeters of ice for one person walking or skating, 20 for a group and 25 for a snowmobile or ATV. Measure it on the spot every time.
Large Inland Lakes
El Niño Could Mean a Later Freeze
This winter’s El Niño could push freeze-up later across central and southern Ontario. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported it on October 8, with the equatorial Pacific 2.1 °C above normal and forecast to strengthen through the end of the year. Its forecasters give an 83 percent chance that this will be the strongest October to December reading since 1950. Press reports are calling it a super El Niño.
Only three winters since 1950 have reached NOAA’s very strong class: 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16. In Ontario’s long-running records, lakes froze about 6 days later in those winters than in other winters of the period.
Lake Simcoe froze 6 to 13 days late in all three. The Dorset lakes, eight small lakes the province monitors near Dorset on Lake of Bays, froze 6 days early in 1997-98 and 26 days late in 2015-16. Lakes in the northwest showed no delay, because they freeze in November, ahead of El Niño’s strongest effect on Ontario’s weather.
The dates in this story have been adjusted later to reflect those records: about ten days in central and southern Ontario, about five days in the northeast and none in the northwest. The adjustment gets smaller as this winter’s temperatures come in.
When Each Region Should Freeze
Northern lakes freeze first. Seventy-seven lakes of Northwestern and Northeastern Ontario have a middle freeze-up date of December 8, against December 28 for lakes farther south.
Northwestern Ontario
Kenogamisis Lake in Greenstone should freeze first, around November 20, and Dog Lake (Thunder Bay District) last, around December 17. Half of the region’s 31 lakes should be frozen by November 30, 4 days later than usual. Among the largest lakes, Eagle Lake (Kenora District) is due around November 28, Lake of the Woods around November 29 and Lac Seul around November 30.
Northeastern Ontario
Half of these 46 lakes should be frozen by December 14, 6 days later than usual. Night Hawk Lake in Timmins should be first, around November 28, and Basswood Lake in Huron Shores last, around January 23. Of its largest lakes, Lake Nipissing is due around December 12, Lake Temagami around December 20 and Wanapitei Lake around December 29.
Parry Sound
Predicted dates run from December 16 at Bear Lake in Mcmurrich/Monteith to January 11 at Blackstone Lake in Archipelago. Half of the region’s 24 lakes should be frozen by December 26, 10 days later than usual. The largest lakes fall in between: Ahmic Lake around December 25 and Lake Bernard and Wahwashkesh Lake around December 30.
Muskoka
Butterfly Lake in Muskoka Lakes should freeze first, around December 18, and Skeleton Lake in Muskoka Lakes last, around January 9. Half of the region’s 26 lakes should be frozen by December 28, 10 days later than usual. Among the largest lakes, Lake Muskoka is due around December 30, Lake of Bays around January 3 and Lake Rosseau around January 7.
Haliburton Highlands
Half of these 37 lakes should be frozen by December 29, 11 days later than usual. Head Lake (Haliburton County) should be first, around December 16, and Halls Lake in Algonquin Highlands last, around January 10. Of its largest lakes, Lake Opeongo is due around December 24, Kawagama Lake around December 31 and Kennisis Lake around January 1.
Lake Simcoe and the Kawarthas
.jpg){kind=link}
Predicted dates run from December 19 at Little Bald Lake in Trent Lakes to January 16 at Lake Simcoe. Half of the region’s 44 lakes should be frozen by December 28, 11 days later than usual. The largest lakes fall in between: Lake Scugog around December 20 and Rice Lake and Pigeon Lake around December 23.
Eastern Ontario
Baptiste Lake in Hastings Highlands should freeze first, around December 18, and Desert Lake in South Frontenac last, around January 16. Half of the region’s 50 lakes should be frozen by December 28, 10 days later than usual. Among the largest lakes, Golden Lake is due around December 21 and Big Rideau Lake and Bark Lake around December 31.
Bruce, Grey and Wellington
.jpg){kind=link}
Half of these six lakes should be frozen by December 28, 12 days later than usual. Lake Eugenia in Grey Highlands should be first, around December 20, and Conestogo Lake in Mapleton last, around January 4. Of its largest lakes, Lake Belwood is due around December 28, Miller Lake around January 1 and Chesley Lake around January 3.
Why the Deep Lakes Freeze Last
A lake cannot freeze over until all of its water has cooled to about 4 °C, the temperature at which fresh water is heaviest, and its surface has cooled below that. A deep lake holds more heat and takes longer to lose it.
Bear Lake and Blackstone Lake are thirty-three kilometers apart and share much the same weather. Bear Lake, with a mean depth of 2.3 meters, should freeze over around December 16. Blackstone Lake, at 20 meters, should take until around January 11, four weeks later.
How the Predictions Are Made
Each prediction starts with air temperature and lake depth. Air temperature comes from Environment Canada’s daily records since October 1 and its current forecast. Beyond the forecast, it uses the weather of past Ontario winters, then adjusts the date for El Niño.
Tested against recorded freeze-up dates on 11 Ontario lakes, 69 percent of the model’s dates were within a week.
Every Lake, by Region
Northwestern Ontario31 lakes, Nov 20 to Dec 17
| Lake | Likely | Likely range | Usual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenogamisis LakeGreenstone, Thunder Bay District | Nov 20 | Nov 13 to Nov 27 | Nov 17 | Weather |
| Red LakeKenora District | Nov 23 | Nov 17 to Dec 2 | Nov 20 | Weather |
| Wildgoose LakeGreenstone, Thunder Bay District | Nov 23 | Nov 15 to Nov 29 | Nov 19 | Weather |
| Dinorwic LakeKenora District | Nov 24 | Nov 17 to Dec 6 | Nov 22 | Weather |
| Lake LuluKenora District | Nov 24 | Nov 16 to Dec 6 | Nov 20 | Weather |
| Longpine LakeKenora District | Nov 24 | Nov 16 to Dec 6 | Nov 20 | Weather |
| Wabaskang LakeKenora District | Nov 27 | Nov 21 to Dec 9 | Nov 24 | Weather |
| Wabigoon LakeKenora District | Nov 27 | Nov 20 to Dec 8 | Nov 24 | Weather |
| Eagle Lake (Kenora District)Kenora District | Nov 28 | Nov 20 to Dec 8 | Nov 25 | Weather |
| Lower Shebandowan LakeThunder Bay District | Nov 28 | Nov 19 to Dec 7 | Nov 25 | Weather |
| Malachi LakeKenora District | Nov 28 | Nov 22 to Dec 11 | Nov 27 | Weather |
| Whitefish Lake (Thunder Bay District)Thunder Bay District | Nov 28 | Nov 20 to Dec 10 | Nov 26 | Weather |
| Lac des Mille LacsThunder Bay District | Nov 29 | Nov 21 to Dec 8 | Nov 24 | Weather |
| Lake of the WoodsKenora District | Nov 29 | Nov 22 to Dec 11 | Nov 28 | Weather |
| Lac SeulKenora District | Nov 30 | Nov 20 to Dec 9 | Nov 26 | Weather |
| Marmion LakeRainy River District | Nov 30 | Nov 22 to Dec 10 | Nov 26 | Weather |
| Middle Shebandowan LakeThunder Bay District | Nov 30 | Nov 22 to Dec 10 | Nov 26 | Weather |
| Minnitaki LakeKenora District | Nov 30 | Nov 21 to Dec 10 | Nov 28 | Weather |
| Pelican LakeSioux Lookout, Kenora District | Nov 30 | Nov 21 to Dec 10 | Nov 28 | Weather |
| Thunder LakeKenora District | Nov 30 | Nov 22 to Dec 11 | Nov 28 | Weather |
| Upper Shebandowan LakeThunder Bay District | Nov 30 | Nov 21 to Dec 9 | Nov 24 | Weather |
| Black Sturgeon LakesKenora, Kenora District | Dec 2 | Nov 24 to Dec 15 | Nov 30 | Weather |
| Abram LakeSioux Lookout, Kenora District | Dec 3 | Nov 22 to Dec 11 | Nov 30 | Weather |
| Sturgeon Lake (Thunder Bay District)Thunder Bay District | Dec 3 | Nov 22 to Dec 12 | Dec 1 | Weather |
| Eva LakeRainy River District | Dec 6 | Nov 26 to Dec 16 | Dec 3 | Weather |
| Dryberry LakeKenora District | Dec 7 | Dec 2 to Dec 19 | Dec 5 | Weather |
| Kakagi LakeKenora District | Dec 7 | Dec 2 to Dec 19 | Dec 4 | Weather |
| Hawkeye LakeThunder Bay District | Dec 8 | Nov 30 to Dec 21 | Dec 6 | Weather |
| White Lake (Thunder Bay District)Thunder Bay District | Dec 8 | Nov 27 to Dec 18from fourteen past winters, the station records near it being short | Dec 6 | Weather |
| White Otter LakeKenora District | Dec 8 | Dec 2 to Dec 21 | Dec 5 | Weather |
| Dog Lake (Thunder Bay District)Thunder Bay District | Dec 17 | Dec 8 to Jan 2 | Dec 15 | Weather |
Northeastern Ontario46 lakes, Nov 28 to Jan 23
| Lake | Likely | Likely range | Usual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Night Hawk LakeTimmins, Cochrane District | Nov 28 | Nov 20 to Dec 6 | Nov 22 | Weather |
| Porcupine LakeTimmins, Cochrane District | Nov 29 | Nov 20 to Dec 7 | Nov 23 | Weather |
| Remi LakeMoonbeam, Cochrane District | Nov 29 | Nov 21 to Dec 7 | Nov 22 | Weather |
| Sesekinika LakeTimiskaming District | Dec 2 | Nov 21 to Dec 10 | Nov 23 | Weather |
| Kenogami LakeTimiskaming District | Dec 3 | Nov 24 to Dec 14 | Nov 26 | Weather |
| Mistinikon LakeMatachewan, Timiskaming District | Dec 3 | Nov 23 to Dec 13 | Nov 25 | Weather |
| Frederick House LakeTimmins, Cochrane District | Dec 4 | Nov 24 to Dec 14 | Nov 27 | Weather |
| Richard LakeGreater Sudbury, Sudbury District | Dec 5 | Nov 27 to Dec 21 | Nov 29 | Weather |
| Vermilion LakeGreater Sudbury, Sudbury District | Dec 8 | Nov 29 to Dec 22 | Nov 30 | Weather |
| Watabeag LakeTimiskaming District | Dec 8 | Dec 1 to Dec 18 | Dec 2 | Weather |
| Lake NosbonsingEast Ferris, Nipissing District | Dec 9 | Dec 2 to Dec 26 | Dec 4 | Weather |
| Red Cedar LakeNipissing District | Dec 9 | Dec 2 to Dec 23 | Dec 2 | Weather |
| Lady Evelyn LakeTimiskaming District | Dec 10 | Dec 2 to Dec 22 | Dec 4 | Weather |
| Long Lake (Timiskaming District)Timiskaming District | Dec 10 | Dec 2 to Dec 20 | Dec 5 | Weather |
| Nepewassi LakeSudbury District | Dec 11 | Dec 1 to Dec 22 | Dec 5 | Weather |
| Net LakeTemagami, Nipissing District | Dec 11 | Dec 3 to Dec 26 | Dec 4 | Weather |
| Cassels LakeTemagami, Nipissing District | Dec 12 | Dec 4 to Dec 29 | Dec 6 | Weather |
| Lake NipissingWest Nipissing, Nipissing District | Dec 12 | Dec 2 to Dec 27 | Dec 6 | Weather |
| Larder LakeLarder Lake, Timiskaming District | Dec 12 | Dec 5 to Dec 21 | Dec 6 | Weather |
| Long Lake (Sudbury District)Greater Sudbury, Sudbury District | Dec 14 | Dec 6 to Dec 28 | Dec 8 | Weather |
| Missinaibi LakeSudbury District | Dec 14 | Dec 6 to Dec 26 | Dec 7 | Weather |
| Nepahwin LakeGreater Sudbury, Sudbury District | Dec 14 | Dec 5 to Dec 26 | Dec 8 | Weather |
| Onaping LakeSudbury District | Dec 14 | Dec 4 to Dec 26 | Dec 8 | Weather |
| Ramsey LakeGreater Sudbury, Sudbury District | Dec 14 | Dec 6 to Dec 28 | Dec 8 | Weather |
| Windy LakeSudbury District | Dec 15 | Dec 7 to Dec 28 | Dec 10 | Weather |
| Trout Lake (Sudbury District)French River, Sudbury District | Dec 16 | Dec 5 to Jan 3 | Dec 10 | Weather |
| Turtle LakeBonfield, Nipissing District | Dec 16 | Dec 7 to Dec 30 | Dec 8 | Weather |
| Kukagami LakeSudbury District | Dec 17 | Dec 9 to Dec 30 | Dec 12 | Weather |
| Lake TalonNipissing District | Dec 17 | Dec 8 to Jan 3 | Dec 11 | Weather |
| Obabika LakeSudbury District | Dec 17 | Dec 8 to Dec 29 | Dec 11 | Weather |
| Fairbank LakeGreater Sudbury, Sudbury District | Dec 19 | Dec 11 to Dec 31 | Dec 12 | Weather |
| Rabbit LakeTemagami, Nipissing District | Dec 19 | Dec 8 to Jan 1 | Dec 11 | Weather |
| Agnew LakeNairn and Hyman, Sudbury District | Dec 20 | Dec 13 to Jan 7 | Dec 14 | Weather |
| Lake TemagamiTemagami, Nipissing District | Dec 20 | Dec 11 to Jan 1 | Dec 14 | Weather |
| Trout Lake (Nipissing District)North Bay, Nipissing District | Dec 21 | Dec 10 to Jan 4 | Dec 14 | Weather |
| Lake KagawongBillings, Manitoulin District | Dec 28 | Dec 18 to Jan 17 | Dec 23 | Weather |
| Lake PanacheSudbury District | Dec 28 | Dec 18 to Jan 15 | Dec 23 | Weather |
| Mindemoya LakeCentral Manitoulin, Manitoulin District | Dec 28 | Dec 17 to Jan 16 | Dec 23 | Weather |
| Wanapitei LakeGreater Sudbury, Sudbury District | Dec 29 | Dec 17 to Jan 12 | Dec 24 | Weather |
| Lake WolseyBurpee and Mills, Manitoulin District | Dec 31 | Dec 15 to Jan 15 | Dec 26 | Weather |
| Lake ManitouAssiginack, Manitoulin District | Jan 2 | Dec 20 to Jan 18 | Dec 28 | Weather |
| Lauzon LakeNorth Shore, Algoma District | Jan 2 | Dec 20 to Jan 21 | Dec 26 | Weather |
| Ranger LakeAlgoma District | Jan 5 | Dec 21 to Jan 19from thirteen past winters, the station records near it being short | Dec 31 | Weather |
| Matinenda LakeBlind River, Algoma District | Jan 6 | Dec 20 to Jan 21 | Dec 30 | Weather |
| Chiblow LakeBlind River, Algoma District | Jan 12 | Dec 24 to Jan 24 | Jan 7 | Weather |
| Basswood LakeHuron Shores, Algoma District | Jan 23 | Jan 9 to Feb 6 | Jan 18 | Weather |
Parry Sound24 lakes, Dec 16 to Jan 11
| Lake | Likely | Likely range | Usual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear LakeMcmurrich/Monteith, Parry Sound District | Dec 16 | Dec 4 to Dec 28 | Dec 4 | Weather |
| Eagle Lake (Parry Sound District)Machar, Parry Sound District | Dec 16 | Dec 11 to Jan 3 | Dec 4 | Weather |
| Three Mile Lake (Parry Sound District)Armour, Parry Sound District | Dec 19 | Dec 10 to Jan 4 | Dec 8 | Weather |
| Harris LakeParry Sound District | Dec 20 | Dec 11 to Jan 3 | Dec 8 | Weather |
| Lake CecebeMagnetawan, Parry Sound District | Dec 22 | Dec 11 to Jan 4 | Dec 10 | Weather |
| Manitouwabing LakeMckellar, Parry Sound District | Dec 22 | Dec 12 to Jan 5 | Dec 12 | Weather |
| Doe LakeMcmurrich/Monteith, Parry Sound District | Dec 23 | Dec 12 to Jan 8 | Dec 12 | Weather |
| Restoule LakeParry Sound District | Dec 24 | Dec 13 to Jan 8 | Dec 13 | Weather |
| Ahmic LakeMagnetawan, Parry Sound District | Dec 25 | Dec 15 to Jan 13 | Dec 14 | Weather |
| Bay LakePerry, Parry Sound District | Dec 25 | Dec 15 to Jan 9 | Dec 14 | Weather |
| Clear Lake (Parry Sound District)Perry, Parry Sound District | Dec 25 | Dec 15 to Jan 9 | Dec 14 | Weather |
| Pickerel LakeArmour, Parry Sound District | Dec 26 | Dec 15 to Jan 10 | Dec 16 | Weather |
| Healey LakeArchipelago, Parry Sound District | Dec 28 | Dec 17 to Jan 21 | Dec 18 | Weather |
| Horseshoe Lake (Parry Sound District)Seguin, Parry Sound District | Dec 28 | Dec 17 to Jan 13 | Dec 18 | Weather |
| Lake BernardStrong, Parry Sound District | Dec 30 | Dec 18 to Jan 14 | Dec 19 | Weather |
| Rankin LakeSeguin, Parry Sound District | Dec 30 | Dec 19 to Jan 16 | Dec 20 | Weather |
| Wahwashkesh LakeWhitestone, Parry Sound District | Dec 30 | Dec 17 to Jan 20 | Dec 19 | Weather |
| Crane LakeArchipelago, Parry Sound District | Dec 31 | Dec 22 to Jan 24 | Dec 21 | Weather |
| Star LakeSeguin, Parry Sound District | Dec 31 | Dec 21 to Jan 19 | Dec 21 | Weather |
| Otter Lake (Parry Sound District)Seguin, Parry Sound District | Jan 1 | Dec 23 to Jan 21 | Dec 22 | Weather |
| Whitefish Lake (Parry Sound District)Seguin, Parry Sound District | Jan 1 | Dec 23 to Jan 21 | Dec 22 | Weather |
| Sand Lake (Parry Sound District)Kearney, Parry Sound District | Jan 5 | Dec 23 to Jan 19 | Dec 26 | Weather |
| Clear Lake (Parry Sound District)Seguin, Parry Sound District | Jan 7 | Dec 26 to Jan 28 | Dec 28 | Weather |
| Blackstone LakeArchipelago, Parry Sound District | Jan 11 | Dec 27 to Jan 30 | Dec 30 | Weather |
Muskoka26 lakes, Dec 18 to Jan 9
| Lake | Likely | Likely range | Usual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Butterfly LakeMuskoka Lakes, Muskoka | Dec 18 | Dec 8 to Jan 2 | Dec 8 | Weather |
| Three Mile Lake (Muskoka)Muskoka Lakes, Muskoka | Dec 18 | Dec 8 to Jan 3 | Dec 7 | Weather |
| Bass Lake (Muskoka)Muskoka Lakes, Muskoka | Dec 20 | Dec 9 to Jan 3 | Dec 8 | Weather |
| Morrison LakeGravenhurst, Muskoka | Dec 20 | Dec 8 to Jan 4 | Dec 8 | Weather |
| Sparrow LakeGravenhurst, Muskoka | Dec 20 | Dec 8 to Jan 5 | Dec 10 | Weather |
| Dotty LakeLake of Bays, Muskoka | Dec 22 | Dec 11 to Jan 3 | Dec 10 | Weather |
| Kahshe LakeGravenhurst, Muskoka | Dec 22 | Dec 9 to Jan 6 | Dec 10 | Weather |
| Riley LakeGravenhurst, Muskoka | Dec 22 | Dec 9 to Jan 7 | Dec 12 | Weather |
| Stewart LakeGeorgian Bay, Muskoka | Dec 22 | Dec 12 to Jan 6 | Dec 10 | Weather |
| Wood LakeBracebridge, Muskoka | Dec 22 | Dec 9 to Jan 6 | Dec 10 | Weather |
| Bigwind LakeBracebridge, Muskoka | Dec 26 | Dec 15 to Jan 11 | Dec 15 | Weather |
| Gibson LakeGeorgian Bay, Muskoka | Dec 27 | Dec 14 to Jan 15 | Dec 17 | Weather |
| Bella LakeLake of Bays, Muskoka | Dec 28 | Dec 20 to Jan 14 | Dec 18 | Weather |
| Buck LakeMcmurrich/Monteith, Parry Sound District | Dec 28 | Dec 16 to Jan 12 | Dec 18 | Weather |
| Little Lake JosephSeguin, Parry Sound District | Dec 28 | Dec 17 to Jan 14 | Dec 18 | Weather |
| Peninsula LakeLake of Bays, Muskoka | Dec 28 | Dec 17 to Jan 11 | Dec 18 | Weather |
| Gloucester PoolGeorgian Bay, Muskoka | Dec 29 | Dec 15 to Jan 17 | Dec 19 | Weather |
| Six Mile LakeGeorgian Bay, Muskoka | Dec 29 | Dec 15 to Jan 15 | Dec 18 | Weather |
| Lake MuskokaMuskoka Lakes, Muskoka | Dec 30 | Dec 20 to Jan 17 | Dec 18 | Weather |
| Lake VernonHuntsville, Muskoka | Dec 30 | Dec 19 to Jan 15 | Dec 20 | Weather |
| Lake of BaysLake of Bays, Muskoka | Jan 3 | Dec 23 to Jan 19 | Dec 23 | Weather |
| Fairy LakeHuntsville, Muskoka | Jan 5 | Dec 23 to Jan 19 | Dec 26 | Weather |
| Lake RosseauMuskoka Lakes, Muskoka | Jan 7 | Dec 24 to Jan 25 | Dec 26 | Weather |
| Lake JosephMuskoka Lakes, Muskoka | Jan 8 | Dec 24 to Jan 26 | Dec 28 | Weather |
| Mary LakeHuntsville, Muskoka | Jan 9 | Dec 24 to Jan 24 | Dec 30 | Weather |
| Skeleton LakeMuskoka Lakes, Muskoka | Jan 9 | Dec 26 to Jan 28 | Dec 30 | Weather |
Haliburton Highlands37 lakes, Dec 16 to Jan 10
| Lake | Likely | Likely range | Usual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head Lake (Haliburton County)Dysart Et Al, Haliburton County | Dec 16 | Dec 5 to Jan 2 | Dec 6 | Weather |
| South LakeMinden Hills, Haliburton County | Dec 19 | Dec 10 to Jan 4 | Dec 9 | Weather |
| Gooderham LakeHighlands East, Haliburton County | Dec 22 | Dec 14 to Jan 7 | Dec 10 | Weather |
| Salerno LakeHighlands East, Haliburton County | Dec 22 | Dec 14 to Jan 9 | Dec 12 | Weather |
| Beech LakeAlgonquin Highlands, Haliburton County | Dec 23 | Dec 14 to Jan 10 | Dec 13 | Weather |
| Canoe LakeNipissing District | Dec 23 | Dec 14 to Jan 8 | Dec 12 | Weather |
| Eagle Lake (Haliburton County)Dysart Et Al, Haliburton County | Dec 23 | Dec 14 to Jan 8 | Dec 13 | Weather |
| Lake OpeongoNipissing District | Dec 24 | Dec 15 to Jan 10 | Dec 13 | Weather |
| Oxtongue LakeAlgonquin Highlands, Haliburton County | Dec 24 | Dec 15 to Jan 9 | Dec 14 | Weather |
| Raven LakeAlgonquin Highlands, Haliburton County | Dec 24 | Dec 15 to Jan 9 | Dec 14 | Weather |
| Sherborne LakeAlgonquin Highlands, Haliburton County | Dec 24 | Dec 16 to Jan 9 | Dec 14 | Weather |
| Canning LakeMinden Hills, Haliburton County | Dec 26 | Dec 15 to Jan 10 | Dec 16 | Weather |
| Horseshoe Lake (Haliburton County)Minden Hills, Haliburton County | Dec 26 | Dec 15 to Jan 10 | Dec 16 | Weather |
| Kushog LakeAlgonquin Highlands, Haliburton County | Dec 26 | Dec 17 to Jan 13 | Dec 16 | Weather |
| Moore LakeMinden Hills, Haliburton County | Dec 26 | Dec 15 to Jan 16 | Dec 16 | Weather |
| Percy LakeDysart Et Al, Haliburton County | Dec 26 | Dec 17 to Jan 8 | Dec 16 | Weather |
| Paudash LakeHighlands East, Haliburton County | Dec 27 | Dec 14 to Jan 8 | Dec 16 | Weather |
| Esson LakeHighlands East, Haliburton County | Dec 28 | Dec 17 to Jan 9 | Dec 18 | Weather |
| Kashagawigamog LakeMinden Hills, Haliburton County | Dec 29 | Dec 18 to Jan 10 | Dec 18 | Weather |
| Little Kennisis LakeDysart Et Al, Haliburton County | Dec 29 | Dec 19 to Jan 13 | Dec 16 | Weather |
| Maple LakeAlgonquin Highlands, Haliburton County | Dec 29 | Dec 17 to Jan 14 | Dec 18 | Weather |
| Davis LakeMinden Hills, Haliburton County | Dec 30 | Dec 18 to Jan 19 | Dec 19 | Weather |
| Mountain LakeMinden Hills, Haliburton County | Dec 30 | Dec 21 to Jan 20 | Dec 20 | Weather |
| Soyers LakeMinden Hills, Haliburton County | Dec 30 | Dec 19 to Jan 17 | Dec 20 | Weather |
| Twelve Mile LakeMinden Hills, Haliburton County | Dec 30 | Dec 19 to Jan 16 | Dec 20 | Weather |
| Haliburton LakeDysart Et Al, Haliburton County | Dec 31 | Dec 20 to Jan 14 | Dec 18 | Weather |
| Kawagama LakeAlgonquin Highlands, Haliburton County | Dec 31 | Dec 22 to Jan 14 | Dec 20 | Weather |
| Big Hawk LakeAlgonquin Highlands, Haliburton County | Jan 1 | Dec 20 to Jan 18 | Dec 20 | Weather |
| Drag LakeDysart Et Al, Haliburton County | Jan 1 | Dec 22 to Jan 15 | Dec 22 | Weather |
| Kennisis LakeDysart Et Al, Haliburton County | Jan 1 | Dec 23 to Jan 15 | Dec 21 | Weather |
| Miskwabi LakeDysart Et Al, Haliburton County | Jan 1 | Dec 21 to Jan 14 | Dec 21 | Weather |
| Redstone LakeDysart Et Al, Haliburton County | Jan 1 | Dec 22 to Jan 15 | Dec 20 | Weather |
| St. Nora LakeAlgonquin Highlands, Haliburton County | Jan 1 | Dec 21 to Jan 13 | Dec 20 | Weather |
| Gull LakeMinden Hills, Haliburton County | Jan 2 | Dec 22 to Jan 23 | Dec 22 | Weather |
| Bob LakeMinden Hills, Haliburton County | Jan 3 | Dec 22 to Jan 23 | Dec 22 | Weather |
| Boshkung LakeAlgonquin Highlands, Haliburton County | Jan 8 | Dec 24 to Jan 26 | Dec 28 | Weather |
| Halls LakeAlgonquin Highlands, Haliburton County | Jan 10 | Dec 26 to Jan 28 | Dec 30 | Weather |
Lake Simcoe and the Kawarthas44 lakes, Dec 19 to Jan 16
| Lake | Likely | Likely range | Usual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Bald LakeTrent Lakes, Peterborough County | Dec 19 | Dec 7 to Jan 3 | Dec 9 | Weather |
| Mitchell LakeKawartha Lakes | Dec 19 | Dec 3 to Jan 3 | Dec 9 | Weather |
| Buckhorn LakeTrent Lakes, Peterborough County | Dec 20 | Dec 11 to Jan 5 | Dec 10 | Weather |
| Eels LakeNorth Kawartha, Peterborough County | Dec 20 | Dec 9 to Jan 3 | Dec 8 | Weather |
| Lake ScugogScugog, Durham Region | Dec 20 | Dec 4 to Jan 5 | Dec 10 | Weather |
| Beaver LakeTrent Lakes, Peterborough County | Dec 21 | Dec 10 to Jan 8 | Dec 10 | Weather |
| Big Bald LakeTrent Lakes, Peterborough County | Dec 22 | Dec 11 to Jan 7 | Dec 11 | Weather |
| Canal LakeKawartha Lakes | Dec 22 | Dec 4 to Jan 9 | Dec 12 | Weather |
| Chemong LakeSelwyn, Peterborough County | Dec 22 | Dec 11 to Jan 7 | Dec 10 | Weather |
| Farlain LakeTiny, Simcoe County | Dec 22 | Dec 8 to Jan 7 | Dec 12 | Weather |
| Head Lake (Kawartha Lakes)Kawartha Lakes | Dec 22 | Dec 13 to Jan 9 | Dec 12 | Weather |
| Lovesick LakeTrent Lakes, Peterborough County | Dec 22 | Dec 11 to Jan 7 | Dec 12 | Weather |
| Tea LakeSevern, Simcoe County | Dec 22 | Dec 8 to Jan 14 | Dec 12 | Weather |
| Pigeon LakeTrent Lakes, Peterborough County | Dec 23 | Dec 12 to Jan 9 | Dec 13 | Weather |
| Rice LakeOtonabee-South Monaghan, Peterborough County | Dec 23 | Dec 9 to Jan 8 | Dec 13 | Weather |
| Kasshabog LakeHavelock-Belmont-Methuen, Peterborough County | Dec 24 | Dec 11 to Jan 9 | Dec 14 | Weather |
| Sturgeon Lake (Kawartha Lakes)Kawartha Lakes | Dec 24 | Dec 14 to Jan 11 | Dec 14 | Weather |
| White Lake (Peterborough County)Douro-Dummer, Peterborough County | Dec 24 | Dec 12 to Jan 9 | Dec 14 | Weather |
| Lower Buckhorn LakeTrent Lakes, Peterborough County | Dec 25 | Dec 13 to Jan 11 | Dec 15 | Weather |
| Anstruther LakeNorth Kawartha, Peterborough County | Dec 28 | Dec 18 to Jan 15 | Dec 18 | Weather |
| Bass Lake (Simcoe County)Oro-Medonte, Simcoe County | Dec 28 | Dec 13 to Jan 11 | Dec 18 | Weather |
| Chandos LakeNorth Kawartha, Peterborough County | Dec 28 | Dec 17 to Jan 10 | Dec 17 | Weather |
| Cordova LakeHavelock-Belmont-Methuen, Peterborough County | Dec 28 | Dec 14 to Jan 12 | Dec 18 | Weather |
| Dalrymple LakeKawartha Lakes | Dec 28 | Dec 17 to Jan 15 | Dec 16 | Weather |
| Round Lake (Peterborough County)Havelock-Belmont-Methuen, Peterborough County | Dec 28 | Dec 14 to Jan 14 | Dec 18 | Weather |
| Sandy LakeTrent Lakes, Peterborough County | Dec 28 | Dec 15 to Jan 12 | Dec 18 | Weather |
| Balsam LakeKawartha Lakes | Dec 29 | Dec 18 to Jan 14 | Dec 18 | Weather |
| Lake St. JohnRamara, Simcoe County | Dec 29 | Dec 18 to Jan 13 | Dec 18 | Weather |
| MacLean LakeSevern, Simcoe County | Dec 29 | Dec 13 to Jan 14 | Dec 16 | Weather |
| Big Cedar LakeNorth Kawartha, Peterborough County | Dec 30 | Dec 17 to Jan 14 | Dec 20 | Weather |
| Cameron LakeKawartha Lakes | Dec 30 | Dec 21 to Jan 18 | Dec 20 | Weather |
| Clear Lake (Peterborough County)Douro-Dummer, Peterborough County | Dec 30 | Dec 17 to Jan 14 | Dec 20 | Weather |
| Crowe LakeMarmora and Lake, Hastings County | Dec 30 | Dec 18 to Jan 17 | Dec 20 | Weather |
| Crystal LakeTrent Lakes, Peterborough County | Dec 30 | Dec 19 to Jan 20 | Dec 20 | Weather |
| Shadow LakeKawartha Lakes | Dec 30 | Dec 17 to Jan 19 | Dec 20 | Weather |
| Stony LakeNorth Kawartha, Peterborough County | Dec 30 | Dec 17 to Jan 14 | Dec 20 | Weather |
| Belmont LakeHavelock-Belmont-Methuen, Peterborough County | Dec 31 | Dec 18 to Jan 18 | Dec 20 | Weather |
| Lake CouchichingOro-Medonte, Simcoe County | Jan 1 | Dec 20 to Jan 18 | Dec 21 | Weather |
| Catchacoma LakeTrent Lakes, Peterborough County | Jan 3 | Dec 22 to Jan 25 | Dec 24 | Weather |
| Four Mile LakeKawartha Lakes | Jan 3 | Dec 18 to Jan 24 | Dec 22 | Weather |
| Gold LakeTrent Lakes, Peterborough County | Jan 3 | Dec 21 to Jan 26 | Dec 22 | Weather |
| Jack LakeHavelock-Belmont-Methuen, Peterborough County | Jan 3 | Dec 19 to Jan 24 | Dec 24 | Weather |
| Mississagua LakeTrent Lakes, Peterborough County | Jan 9 | Dec 24 to Jan 28 | Dec 30 | Weather |
| Lake SimcoeOro-Medonte, Simcoe County | Jan 16 | Dec 24 to Jan 29 | Jan 6 | Weather |
Eastern Ontario50 lakes, Dec 18 to Jan 16
| Lake | Likely | Likely range | Usual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baptiste LakeHastings Highlands, Hastings County | Dec 18 | Dec 7 to Jan 2 | Dec 7 | Weather |
| Mink LakeNorth Algona Wilberforce, Renfrew County | Dec 18 | Dec 12 to Jan 3 | Dec 8 | Weather |
| Steenburg LakeLimerick, Hastings County | Dec 18 | Dec 8 to Jan 6 | Dec 7 | Weather |
| White Lake (Lanark County)Lanark Highlands, Lanark County | Dec 19 | Dec 11 to Jan 2 | Dec 8 | Weather |
| Mississippi LakeBeckwith, Lanark County | Dec 20 | Dec 10 to Jan 3 | Dec 9 | Weather |
| Golden LakeNorth Algona Wilberforce, Renfrew County | Dec 21 | Dec 15 to Jan 9 | Dec 11 | Weather |
| Lake DoréNorth Algona Wilberforce, Renfrew County | Dec 21 | Dec 14 to Jan 4 | Dec 10 | Weather |
| Varty LakeStone Mills, Lennox and Addington County | Dec 21 | Dec 9 to Jan 4 | Dec 11 | Weather |
| Lake St. PeterHastings Highlands, Hastings County | Dec 22 | Dec 11 to Jan 7 | Dec 10 | Weather |
| Calabogie LakeGreater Madawaska, Renfrew County | Dec 23 | Dec 13 to Jan 5 | Dec 12 | Weather |
| Constant LakeBonnechere Valley, Renfrew County | Dec 24 | Dec 12 to Jan 4 | Dec 13 | Weather |
| Dalhousie LakeLanark Highlands, Lanark County | Dec 24 | Dec 14 to Jan 7 | Dec 14 | Weather |
| Lake ClearBonnechere Valley, Renfrew County | Dec 24 | Dec 17 to Jan 10 | Dec 13 | Weather |
| Loughborough LakeSouth Frontenac, Frontenac County | Dec 24 | Dec 13 to Jan 6 | Dec 14 | Weather |
| Upper Beverley LakeRideau Lakes, Leeds and Grenville Counties | Dec 24 | Dec 14 to Jan 10 | Dec 14 | Weather |
| Whitefish Lake (Leeds and Grenville)Rideau Lakes, Leeds and Grenville Counties | Dec 24 | Dec 14 to Jan 6 | Dec 14 | Weather |
| Kamaniskeg LakeHastings Highlands, Hastings County | Dec 25 | Dec 16 to Jan 10 | Dec 14 | Weather |
| Kashwakamak LakeNorth Frontenac, Frontenac County | Dec 25 | Dec 15 to Jan 9 | Dec 15 | Weather |
| Weslemkoon LakeAddington Highlands, Lennox and Addington County | Dec 25 | Dec 13 to Jan 9 | Dec 14 | Weather |
| Wollaston LakeWollaston, Hastings County | Dec 25 | Dec 13 to Jan 8 | Dec 12 | Weather |
| Big Gull LakeNorth Frontenac, Frontenac County | Dec 26 | Dec 18 to Jan 10 | Dec 16 | Weather |
| Round Lake (Renfrew County)Killaloe, Hagarty and Richards, Renfrew County | Dec 26 | Dec 18 to Jan 10 | Dec 15 | Weather |
| Buckshot LakeNorth Frontenac, Frontenac County | Dec 28 | Dec 18 to Jan 12 | Dec 18 | Weather |
| Christie LakeTay Valley, Lanark County | Dec 28 | Dec 19 to Jan 10 | Dec 18 | Weather |
| Crotch LakeNorth Frontenac, Frontenac County | Dec 28 | Dec 18 to Jan 9 | Dec 18 | Weather |
| Moira LakeCentre Hastings, Hastings County | Dec 28 | Dec 17 to Jan 11 | Dec 17 | Weather |
| Muskrat LakeWhitewater Region, Renfrew County | Dec 28 | Dec 21 to Jan 11 | Dec 16 | Weather |
| Newboro LakeRideau Lakes, Leeds and Grenville Counties | Dec 28 | Dec 17 to Jan 9 | Dec 18 | Weather |
| Sharbot LakeCentral Frontenac, Frontenac County | Dec 28 | Dec 18 to Jan 9 | Dec 18 | Weather |
| Silver LakeCentral Frontenac, Frontenac County | Dec 28 | Dec 19 to Jan 13 | Dec 18 | Weather |
| Otter Lake (Leeds and Grenville)Rideau Lakes, Leeds and Grenville Counties | Dec 29 | Dec 20 to Jan 13 | Dec 19 | Weather |
| Skootamatta LakeAddington Highlands, Lennox and Addington County | Dec 29 | Dec 17 to Jan 11 | Dec 18 | Weather |
| Aylen LakeSouth Algonquin, Nipissing District | Dec 30 | Dec 20 to Jan 13 | Dec 20 | Weather |
| Centennial LakeGreater Madawaska, Renfrew County | Dec 30 | Dec 22 to Jan 14 | Dec 20 | Weather |
| Kennebec LakeCentral Frontenac, Frontenac County | Dec 30 | Dec 21 to Jan 17 | Dec 20 | Weather |
| Papineau LakeHastings Highlands, Hastings County | Dec 30 | Dec 21 to Jan 14 | Dec 20 | Weather |
| Sand Lake (Leeds and Grenville)Rideau Lakes, Leeds and Grenville Counties | Dec 30 | Dec 19 to Jan 12 | Dec 20 | Weather |
| Bark LakeMadawaska Valley, Renfrew County | Dec 31 | Dec 21 to Jan 13 | Dec 20 | Weather |
| Big Rideau LakeRideau Lakes, Leeds and Grenville Counties | Dec 31 | Dec 23 to Jan 19 | Dec 21 | Weather |
| Black Donald LakeGreater Madawaska, Renfrew County | Dec 31 | Dec 23 to Jan 17 | Dec 21 | Weather |
| Bobs LakeSouth Frontenac, Frontenac County | Dec 31 | Dec 22 to Jan 18 | Dec 21 | Weather |
| Sydenham LakeSouth Frontenac, Frontenac County | Dec 31 | Dec 23 to Jan 19 | Dec 21 | Weather |
| Dog Lake (Frontenac County)South Frontenac, Frontenac County | Jan 1 | Dec 21 to Jan 17 | Dec 22 | Weather |
| Red Horse LakeLeeds and the Thousand Islands, Leeds and Grenville Counties | Jan 4 | Dec 23 to Jan 25 | Dec 24 | Weather |
| Palmerston LakeNorth Frontenac, Frontenac County | Jan 5 | Dec 26 to Jan 21 | Dec 26 | Weather |
| Crow LakeSouth Frontenac, Frontenac County | Jan 10 | Dec 26 to Jan 28 | Dec 31 | Weather |
| Devil LakeSouth Frontenac, Frontenac County | Jan 10 | Dec 26 to Jan 26 | Dec 30 | Weather |
| Eagle Lake (Frontenac County)Central Frontenac, Frontenac County | Jan 10 | Dec 25 to Jan 26 | Dec 30 | Weather |
| Charleston LakeLeeds and the Thousand Islands, Leeds and Grenville Counties | Jan 13 | Dec 28 to Jan 29 | Jan 3 | Weather |
| Desert LakeSouth Frontenac, Frontenac County | Jan 16 | Dec 31 to Feb 2 | Jan 5 | Weather |
Bruce, Grey and Wellingtonsix lakes, Dec 20 to Jan 4
| Lake | Likely | Likely range | Usual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake EugeniaGrey Highlands, Grey County | Dec 20 | Dec 4 to Jan 10 | Dec 10 | Weather |
| Puslinch LakePuslinch, Wellington County | Dec 22 | Dec 9 to Jan 8 | Dec 12 | Weather |
| Lake BelwoodCentre Wellington, Wellington County | Dec 28 | Dec 16 to Jan 12 | Dec 16 | Weather |
| Miller LakeNorthern Bruce Peninsula, Bruce County | Jan 1 | Dec 17 to Jan 21 | Dec 22 | Weather |
| Chesley LakeSouth Bruce Peninsula, Bruce County | Jan 3 | Dec 21 to Jan 23 | Dec 24 | Weather |
| Conestogo LakeMapleton, Wellington County | Jan 4 | Dec 22 to Jan 24 | Dec 24 | Weather |
Lake Weather
Waves, wind, water temperature and the week ahead on 264 Ontario lakes, four times a day.
Lake weatherLake ice recordsSmall print
- A model date
- Every date in this story is a prediction from the LastLake model, based on air temperature and each lake’s mean depth. Tested against recorded freeze-up dates on 11 Ontario lakes, 69 percent of its dates were within a week of the record, and the average difference was 6.2 days. On lakes under 5 square kilometers, its dates tend to run about five days late. The El Niño adjustment was added after this testing.
- Ice-on
- Ice-on is the day a lake is completely covered by ice. Bays and shallows freeze days to weeks ahead of open water on the same lake. A large lake can also keep open water in one part after its ice-on date, or freeze over again after a thaw.
- Ice safety
- A freeze-up date does not mean the ice is safe. New ice is thin and its thickness varies across a lake. Measure it on the spot every time. The Canadian Red Cross and the Government of Ontario publish thickness guidance.
- Likely range
- The likely date is the middle outcome of the model, run on this fall’s weather to November 9 and then on the weather of each past winter from 1996-97 to 2025-26 for the rest of the season. Eight outcomes in ten fall inside the printed range. The range comes from past weather, so the actual date can fall outside it. Both the likely date and the range carry the El Niño adjustment. A date marked Already reached or Within the forecast has no range, because temperatures reach the model’s ice-on point by then. The usual date is the model’s middle date over those same winters on their own weather.
- El Niño
- Winters are classed by NOAA’s Relative Oceanic Niño Index for November to January, with very strong at 2.0 or more. Each freeze-up is compared with the median of the same lake’s other winters within ten years, leaving out El Niño winters, which removes the warming trend. Ten of the 15 freeze-ups came later than that median. By area, the median was about 10 days later at eight freeze-ups in central and southern Ontario, about 5 days later at four in the northeast and about 2 days earlier at three in the northwest. Running the model on the temperatures of 1997-98 and 2015-16 shows the same pattern. Three winters is a small sample, so the adjustment is an estimate.
- Air and depth
- Air temperatures are Environment and Climate Change Canada’s daily station records and public forecasts. Mean depths come from the province’s Aquatic Resource Area records where one is published. Other lakes use an estimate, which makes their dates less certain. No date is printed for Lake Nipigon, which is more than twice as deep as any lake the model was tested on.
- Air temperature: Environment and Climate Change Canada, daily climate data and public forecasts. Data Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
- Lake outlines and areas: Ontario Hydro Network, Open Government Licence – Ontario. Mean depths: Aquatic Resource Area records, Open Government Licence – Ontario.
- Region maps: Land Information Ontario, municipal boundaries, Open Government Licence – Ontario.
- Freeze-up records used to fit and test the model: the Global Lake and River Ice Phenology Database (NSIDC G01377, doi:10.7265/N5W66HP8), the province’s Dorset lakes record, and the Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority’s Kempenfelt Bay record.
- El Niño: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion of October 8, 2026, and the Relative Oceanic Niño Index.
- Banner and region photographs: Wikimedia Commons, each credited under its picture with its licence. Some photographs are cropped.
- Photograph: Damir K, Pexels. Used under the Pexels licence.